The Math // Costs, revenue, and open questions

THE MATH

The commitments remain. The full cost and funding gap are not yet known. We separate working estimates from missing costs and keep the earlier portfolio figures clearly labeled.

Healthcare: working costs, not a full score

The healthcare working-cost report shows two separately scoped comparisons with evidence and a download. They are not a total to add up, a complete funding gap or net household savings. Additional care and capacity, net setup, and matched collections, refunds and shared funding remain unknown.

Missing costs are not zero. Private coverage credits are not public receipts. Taxes already needed for housing or another commitment cannot be spent twice. Full treatment, zero covered patient charges and all adopted protections remain. Read the coverage rules.

The older tables below are not the score of this plan. They mix source years and precede material healthcare and housing decisions. Their differences must not be quoted as the current platform's funding gap.

Historical portfolio illustrations — not the current plan score

Historical model difference

The old central illustration shows $294.8B a year on average in its relative first decade. Historical revenue analogues are $161.6B, covering 54.8% of its priced bill after booked savings. These are not a current cost estimate or collected receipts.

The named revenue does not cover this bill. The central ten-year difference is $1,331.9B, before interest and unpriced exposure. It is not an official estimate of the deficit effect of a fully specified bill.

We have not cut benefits or added a tax to make the columns balance. Closing the gap requires a policy choice. A slow rollout is not a source of money, and the model does not enforce a revenue or supply trigger.

The health figures are legacy planning amounts, not an estimate of the current design. The core benefits, zero patient charges for covered care, required provider participation, timely access, service-specific payments and capacity support, coverage, premium, billing, employer funding and affordability rules remain uncosted. Full coverage for eligible uninsured nonresponders needs funding; unaccepted premiums cannot count as revenue. Credited private insurance spending is not public revenue. The federal funding guarantee adds no revenue and does not close the gap shown here. The financing direction focuses added taxes on high incomes, capital income and profits, including evaluation of a surtax on very high incomes. The adopted thresholds, regional and inflation adjustments, and broad annual income benchmark with specified additions, protections and one-time gains add no scored revenue. Detailed income-base rules, tax rates, geographic and legal implementation, employer rates and lawful program transfers remain unresolved; unmatched spending adds to deficits and borrowing. The staged Medicare/Medicaid/CHIP transition also remains uncosted, including overlapping operations and services retained outside the core plan. Federal responsibility for transferred core costs ends the separate state program share and increases federal financing needs; state budget relief is not national savings or a guaranteed household tax cut. Read the healthcare rules, examples and open decisions →

The first healthcare estimate will examine recurring costs after Medicare, Medicaid and CHIP core coverage has moved to the public plan, including coverage for eligible uninsured people. It will compare voluntary private-plan switching separately, using a 2030 price basis without promising completion by then. Startup and transition costs need separate estimates. The full cost and funding gap are still unknown.

The housing plan now commits to funding rent help for every otherwise eligible household in HUD's extremely low-income band, even where home-building stalls. These totals retain the earlier housing amounts and fixed ramp. They have not been recalculated for that first-phase guarantee or help when a voucher cannot be used.

Two views, three illustrations

All figures are billions of federal dollars. Source years differ; these are not inflation-adjusted forecasts for a named budget window. The first view uses fixed rollout paths. The second shows annual costs at full take-up, even where that point lies beyond year ten.

First decade · average per year
Case	Cost	Revenue	Gap after savings	Covered
Lower-cost illustration	$199.9B	$143.7B	$56.2B	71.9%
Central illustration	$294.8B	$161.6B	$133.2B	54.8%
Higher-cost illustration	$396.0B	$179.6B	$216.4B	45.4%

Full take-up · one mature year
Case	Cost	Revenue	Gap after savings	Covered
Lower-cost illustration	$283.7B	$143.7B	$140.0B	50.6%
Central illustration	$407.7B	$161.6B	$246.1B	39.6%
Higher-cost illustration	$540.9B	$179.6B	$361.3B	33.2%

Revenue reductions of 20%, 10%, and 0% are assumptions, not measured error bands. The higher-cost case also uses the most favorable revenue assumption. As a separate stress check, high mature costs with low revenue leave $397.2B per year uncovered. That is a sensitivity check, not a recession forecast.

Central rollout · years 1–10

All proposals would begin no earlier than January 2029, after the next presidential term starts, subject to the laws and funding each needs. These relative years have not been converted into a calendar-year budget window.

Year 1 means the first modeled year, not a calendar-year forecast. Revenue is a historical decade average held flat, not an official annual path. The transaction-tax source even has an initial deficit increase. Do not use this table to claim early cash is available to spend.

Year	Cost	Booked savings	Revenue	Gap (+) / excess (−)
1	$106.2B	$0.0B	$161.6B	$-55.5B
2	$169.9B	$0.0B	$161.6B	$8.3B
3	$233.5B	$0.0B	$161.6B	$71.9B
4	$295.5B	$0.0B	$161.6B	$133.8B
5	$329.1B	$0.0B	$161.6B	$167.5B
6	$353.1B	$0.0B	$161.6B	$191.5B
7	$359.3B	$0.0B	$161.6B	$197.7B
8	$364.0B	$0.0B	$161.6B	$202.4B
9	$367.6B	$0.0B	$161.6B	$206.0B
10	$369.9B	$0.0B	$161.6B	$208.3B

The priced commitments

These are annual costs at full take-up, not ten-year totals. A budget cap is an amount we propose to set aside, not proof it will meet all demand. A planning range is not a completed bottom-up model. Open the source note for the original design and its limits.

Proposal	Low / central / high	Evidence and source
Public Education
Universal Pre-K	$12B / $16B / $20B	scored analog Source and limits CBO scored the 2021 pre-K piece at about $61B over its first six years while ramping; that design sunset after six years, so it is an analog, not a permanent-program score. Mature run rate sits above the ramp before states level out near a 40 percent share. CBO, Subsidized Child Care and Universal Preschool · source date 2021-11-01 · baseline year 2021
Equitable School Funding Reform	$3B / $5B / $8B	budget cap Source and limits A Title I bonus sized in single-digit billions per year by design; the $23B gap is the target, and most of the money it moves is state money. A policy-set envelope, not an estimate of unconstrained demand. EdWeek (EdBuild), The $23 Billion Gap · source date 2019-03-01 · baseline year 2019
Universal Post-Secondary Pathways	$9B / $10B / $11B	scored analog Source and limits The 2021 and 2024 executive proposals estimated about $109B and $90B over ten years. Their $9–11B annual averages are retained as a planning anchor, not established mature costs. The source-score phase-in and this model's additional ramp need reconciliation; completion support, federal fallback and related credits are not separately priced. The Century Foundation, America's College Promise analysis · source date 2024-01-01 · baseline year 2024
Teacher Workforce Investment	$10B / $20B / $30B	planning range Source and limits A capped match: federal dollars cover at most half of each state's parity gap and only match state money, so the ceiling is roughly half the cost of full parity. Well below the Pay Teachers Act ceiling (~$80B/yr, which also triples Title I). A state-by-state parity-gap model is the pending bottom-up work; this range is the current planning estimate. Senate HELP, Pay Teachers Act (analog ceiling) · source date 2024-01-01 · baseline year 2024
Affordable Child Care from Birth	$30B / $42B / $55B	scored analog Source and limits CBO priced the 2021 childcare + pre-K pair at ~$381B/10yr while ramping, childcare the larger share, but that design sunset after six years. A permanent 7-percent-of-income cap runs higher at maturity, so the mature range sits above the first-decade envelope. The historical phase-in range is not an enforced cap. The current fixed ramp can fall outside it; a binding rule needs a separate policy decision. CBO, Subsidized Child Care and Universal Preschool · source date 2021-11-01 · baseline year 2021
Show the Results	$0.5B / $0.75B / $1B	budget cap Source and limits One report-card format as a condition on federal dollars already flowing; states collect the data under ESSA. This planning allowance covers site-rebuild grants. Grant duration and ongoing administration still need estimates; the flat annual allowance is not evidence that these are the only costs. US Department of Education, ESSA State Report Cards · source date 2024-01-01 · baseline year 2024
Infrastructure
National Maintenance Doctrine	$0.02B / $0.05B / $0.1B	budget cap Source and limits Rules steer about $350B in existing highway money; no new program. But condition audits, asset-condition data systems, and independent inspection carry a de minimis federal administrative cost, priced here rather than called free. FHWA, IIJA Highway Funding · source date 2024-01-01 · baseline year 2024
Broadband as Utility	$6B / $6.5B / $7B	scored analog Source and limits Reviving the internet affordability discount at the $6-7B a year the replacement bills propose; construction money is already appropriated. FCC, Affordable Connectivity Program · source date 2024-01-01 · baseline year 2024
Grid Modernization Accelerator	$2B / $3.5B / $5B	planning range Source and limits Continuing GRIP-scale grid grants (a $10.5B program) plus a modest new loan-guarantee reserve; the 2022 precedent used $8.6B to back up to $290B in lending. Prose distinguishes generation interconnection reform from interstate transmission siting, which remains largely state authority. DOE, GRIP Program · source date 2024-01-01 · baseline year 2024
Transit-Oriented Development Compact	$0.1B / $0.5B / $1B	budget cap Source and limits A bonus slice inside the existing transit grant program (about $3.8B in 2025); the closest precedent runs $85-100M per round. FTA, Capital Investment Grants · source date 2024-01-01 · baseline year 2024
Housing
Build More Homes	$1B / $3B / $5B	budget cap Source and limits Pro-housing compact scaled from the $85-100M/round PRO Housing pilot into the low billions; homes themselves privately financed. HUD, PRO Housing · source date 2024-01-01 · baseline year 2024
Finance the Builders	$3B / $5.5B / $8B	scored analog Source and limits AHCIA-pattern credit expansion (~+50% allocations, ~2M homes/decade) on top of the 2025 permanent expansion, plus a small-builder loan-guarantee reserve. NLIHC, AHCIA · source date 2024-01-01 · baseline year 2024
Help That Actually Arrives	$100B / $118B / $140B	planning range Source and limits The historical $30-80B incremental phase-in range assumed regional supply benchmarks, but this model uses a fixed ramp, not a tested trigger rule or enforced cap. Urban's 2022-dollar simulation adds vouchers for eligible renters below 50% of area median income (AMI), retaining current recipients up to 80% AMI. Its roughly +$118B/yr assumes full take-up and successful leasing, excludes unhoused people, and does not model rent increases. It is a mature planning analogue, not a score of the approved first-phase funding guarantee for otherwise eligible extremely low-income households, failed-search assistance, or supply triggers. The fixed ramp can fall outside the historical range; the design still needs a policy decision and score. Urban Institute, Full Funding and Use of Housing Choice Vouchers · source date 2023-08-15 · baseline year 2022
End Street Homelessness	$3B / $6B / $10B	budget cap Source and limits Federal homelessness assistance runs ~$4B/yr against a record 771,480 count; supportive-housing scale-up. Offsets in ER/jail/shelter costs are real but not booked. HUD, 2024 Point-in-Time Count · source date 2024-12-01 · baseline year 2024
Environment & Energy Independence
Clean Energy Buildout Acceleration	$0.03B / $0.08B / $0.15B	budget cap Source and limits Permit deadlines and queue rules still need federal staff and data systems. The queue includes speculative generation and storage projects, including gas; it is not a fully financed clean-energy construction pipeline. This is a policy-set administrative allowance, not a workload-based score. FERC, Order 2023 · source date 2024-01-01 · baseline year 2024
Home Energy Cost Reduction	$3B / $5.5B / $8B	scored analog Source and limits Scaling past the appropriated $8.8B in rebates and $3.5B weatherization tranche (about 500,000 homes); the expansion itself is unscored. Sections 25C and 25D ended after 2025 under P.L. 119-21. Restoring those credits and making them refundable needs a new incremental score; this planning allowance is not that score. DOE, IRA Home Energy Rebates · source date 2024-01-01 · baseline year 2024
Climate Resilience Infrastructure	$3B / $6B / $10B	budget cap Source and limits Resilience block grants: BRIC ran about $1B a year before its 2025 shutdown (about $882M returned to Treasury; a court ordered the program restored in December 2025); this scales the grants several times over. The insurance backstop is modeled separately as a contingent liability, not a yearly bill. CRS, FEMA BRIC · source date 2025-01-01 · baseline year 2025
Sustainable Water Infrastructure	$10B / $11B / $12B	scored analog Source and limits The range continues roughly the $55B/five-year water investment pace against EPA's twenty-year needs assessment. The legal route for the national shortage rule through state law, compacts and tribal rights remains a policy and legal-review question; no authority reframe has been adopted. EPA, 7th DWINSA · source date 2023-01-01 · baseline year 2023
Healthcare for All
Universal Coverage via Medicare Buy-In	$40B / $70B / $100B	planning range Legacy range; not an estimate of the current design. Costing checkpoint · Scenario tests and their limits. Source and limits Legacy planning range, not an estimate of the current lifelong-coverage design. The approved core benefits, including dental, vision and hearing, zero patient charges for covered care, premium schedule, affirmative consent, indefinite full coverage for eligible uninsured nonresponders, billing protections, payroll-based employer contributions, coverage credits, benefit benchmark, employer affordability rates, protected allowance and dollar backstops, job-pay measurement and income-update/refund protections, support-based family membership, unused-allowance transfers and fixed two-worker ceiling shares, required public-plan provider participation, appointment limits, care coordination, continuity, necessary travel, and transition assistance have not been costed together. Unaccepted premiums cannot be assumed as revenue. Credited private coverage is not public revenue; required public employer payments are pooled without personal household discounts. Income-based help despite qualifying work offers may increase public enrollment and federal funding needs; that effect is unestimated. Public-premium support households pool relevant responsible-adult income across coverage choices and use equal-person shares for public coverage, subject to consent and full-price limits. The adopted public income base starts from AGI with named foreign-income, tax-exempt-interest and nontaxable Social Security additions, protected exclusions and a dependent work-income allowance linked to the basic single-filer deduction. Expected-year forecasts, prompt current-income relief and protection from added charges for reasonable honestly updated estimates can reduce receipts and increase federal funding needs. Tax-time collection and valid accepted debts remain. The adopted stable-family calculation prorates whole months, applies the lower assessment from expected annual income or annualized new recurring income after a real loss, and caps each person's protected total by the final annual-income schedule for their public-covered, consented months with full-price limits. Refunds and cancelled unpaid charges are distinct; none establishes cash receipts. Liquid taxable severance enters the receipt month's hardship resource test only, capped by the annual-forecast assessment; later months use recurring income. Count severance once in annual income and preserve earlier honest bills, consent and downward settlement. Its collection effect is unestimated. Partial months, changing families, mixed eligibility, hardship with other one-time resources, notice/effective dates, liquidity and rounding rules and the net cost remain unresolved. The approved general-revenue guarantee requires federal funding for the remaining cost; it adds no revenue or estimate. The approved financing direction concentrates additional taxes at the top, builds on existing capital/profit commitments and authorizes developing and costing a surtax on very high incomes; the adopted annual filing-status floors in 2026 reference dollars, national inflation indexing, upward-only regional all-items price adjustment and excess-income-only treatment are working benchmarks for costing, not a new tax or revenue estimate. The adopted income benchmark uses broad annual AGI with specified additions, home/retirement protections and recognized one-time income without a new averaging election. It adds no scored revenue. Detailed income-base rules, loss/basis reconciliation, foreign-tax and treaty coordination, trust/entity safeguards, jurisdiction and rates, residence/geographic and legal implementation, indexing procedures, employer rates, lawful program-transfer terms and the full net federal budget effect remain unresolved. The adopted staged move of Medicare/Medicaid/CHIP core medical coverage protects continuity, existing coverage and needed additional services until suitable replacements are ready. Federal funding takes responsibility for the remaining cost of transferred core care, ending the separate state program share; retained services keep relevant federal/state funding until suitable funded replacements. State budget discretion and ordinary public-employer duties remain. The larger federal need, overlapping operations and retained services remain uncosted; state relief is not national savings or a guaranteed tax cut. No transfer amount or saving is selected. Do not double-count existing platform revenues or treat internal transfers as net savings. Estimate enrollment, claims, collection timing, program offsets, startup and ongoing administration. The adopted payment approach sets national rules by service, efficient delivery costs, patient/local needs and access, with rural and other capacity support. The former 120–140%-of-Medicare range is a costing comparison only, without a required floor, ceiling or overall average. Actual rates, capacity costs and phased changes remain uncosted; no saving is selected. CBO 57125 is a qualitative design report, not a score of this proposal. Earliest first coverage is late 2029, conditional on legislation, funding and readiness. The fixed relative-year ramp and historical phase-in range do not enforce a budget cap or establish a 2029 forecast. CBO, A Public Option for Health Insurance (design report, not a score) · source date 2021-04-01 · baseline year 2021
Healthcare Workforce Pipeline	$1.5B / $2B / $2.5B	planning range Source and limits 14,000 Medicare-funded residency slots at roughly $150,000 per slot per year at full phase-in, adding 2,000 per year over seven years. Congress.gov, H.R.4731 · source date 2025-01-01 · baseline year 2025
Mental Health Care That Answers	$3B / $5.5B / $8B	planning range Source and limits Floor = scored and appropriated pieces: CBO's CCBHC expansion ($8.6B/decade, peak ~$1.25B/yr) + 988 at ~$0.5B/yr + clinic grants ~$0.5B + workforce and parity enforcement. High end extrapolates the clinic map to all states with a mobile-crisis layer and doubled pipeline, unscored. CBO, Bipartisan Safer Communities Act cost estimate (S.2938) · source date 2022-06-01 · baseline year 2022
Long-Term Care That Comes Home	$25B / $42B / $60B	scored analog Source and limits Low end is the CBO-scored House-passed BBB home-care package ($150B/decade = $15B/yr) plus a capped family-caregiver credit (~$10B/yr, unscored); high end is the full Better Care Better Jobs scale ($400B/decade = $40B/yr) plus $20B for the credit. New spending that buys more care at lower cost per person, not a program that pays for itself. CBO, Expanding Home- and Community-Based Services in Medicaid (57632) · source date 2021-11-01 · baseline year 2021
Equal Rights
Anti-Discrimination Enforcement	$0.3B / $0.45B / $0.6B	budget cap Source and limits Roughly doubling case-handling capacity across EEOC (budget about $455M), HUD fair housing, and the DOJ Civil Rights Division. Recovered penalties offset some cost but are not booked as revenue. EEOC, Budget and Performance · source date 2024-01-01 · baseline year 2024
Voting Rights Restoration	$0.05B / $0.15B / $0.3B	budget cap Source and limits DOJ review staff in the tens of millions; election-upgrade grants have precedent in the hundreds of millions, one time. Prose requires a current, evidence-based, geographically dynamic preclearance formula built to survive the equal-sovereignty objection, with severability if part is enjoined. Congress.gov, H.R.14 · source date 2024-01-01 · baseline year 2024
Pay Equity & Economic Opportunity	$0.01B / $0.05B / $0.1B	scored analog Source and limits CBO scored the Paycheck Fairness Act in millions per year, not billions. Pay-transparency and algorithm-audit provisions add small-business thresholds and enforcement remedies in the mechanism. CBO, H.R.7 Cost Estimate · source date 2021-04-01 · baseline year 2021
Equal Justice Under Law	$1.5B / $1.75B / $2B	budget cap Source and limits Legal aid at the $2.1B the fund says full service requires (vs $560M now) plus public-defender funding; sentencing-reform savings not booked. LSC, Appropriations · source date 2024-01-01 · baseline year 2024
An Immigration System That Answers	$0.5B / $1B / $1.5B	planning range Source and limits Roughly doubling the historical immigration-court budget is a planning allowance. A staffing model spanning judges, interpreters, counsel, processing and appeals remains necessary. USCIS fees finance real operating costs; recaptured visas still require staff and systems. TRAC, Immigration Court Backlog · source date 2025-01-01 · baseline year 2025
Smart Technology Governance
Algorithmic Accountability	$0.05B / $0.12B / $0.2B	budget cap Source and limits Planning allowance for federal oversight of audits financed by regulated firms. Covered decisions, government use, exemptions, auditor independence, evidence access and enforcement need a complete statutory design. Firm-level compliance costs are outside the federal total. Congress.gov, ADPPA · source date 2022-01-01 · baseline year 2022
Federal Data Privacy Framework	$0.1B / $0.2B / $0.3B	budget cap Source and limits An FTC privacy bureau; a rival Senate bill put $100M on it, and a national regulator runs in the low hundreds of millions. Placed first in the technology dependency sequence: data minimization and purpose limitation reduce risk across the other tech proposals. Congress.gov, ADPPA · source date 2022-01-01 · baseline year 2022
Frontier AI Safety & Incident Reporting	$0.03B / $0.06B / $0.1B	budget cap Source and limits Planning allowance for a federal safety office and incident database. Thresholds, updating rules, reporting duties, open-weight treatment and coordination with other rules remain design questions. Private evaluation costs are outside the federal total. NIST, AI Risk Management Framework · source date 2024-01-01 · baseline year 2024
Kids' Online Safety by Design	$0.01B / $0.03B / $0.05B	budget cap Source and limits FTC enforcement staff in the millions per year; the Senate-passed KOSA carried no significant budget score. Duty of care binds product design (defaults, feeds, data), never lawful speech. Congress.gov, KOSA (S.1409) · source date 2024-01-01 · baseline year 2024
Foreign Policy & Global Strategy
Alliance Reinvestment & Diplomatic Capacity	$3B / $4.5B / $6B	scored analog Source and limits Restoring a few billion a year of what was cut from the roughly $52B (2025) diplomacy and aid base. Avoided-crisis benefits are real but discussed, not booked as savings. CRS, State Department FY2025 · source date 2025-01-01 · baseline year 2025
Economic Security & Fair Trade	$3B / $5.5B / $8B	scored analog Source and limits CHIPS-pattern programs (CHIPS itself: $52.7B) extended to medicine and other critical goods, sized sector by sector across a decade. NIST, CHIPS for America · source date 2024-01-01 · baseline year 2024
Global Development as Strategic Investment	$10B / $15B / $20B	scored analog Source and limits Rebuilding from the $50B (2026) base toward the roughly $60-70B levels of the early 2020s over several years. Pew Research, US Foreign Aid Data · source date 2025-02-06 · baseline year 2025

Who pays · commitments and limits

We target corporate profits, high incomes, accumulated gains, financial trades, and unpaid taxes. This is not a claim that other households bear no cost. Corporate taxes can affect wages, and transaction taxes can reach ordinary investors. The health plan also sets an employer obligation based on payroll, with no earnings ceiling and credit for qualifying coverage. Its rate and public receipts are not yet estimated. No new broad sales tax is adopted here.

Each counted line is a historical analogue, not a current official score of this package. Adding standalone scores does not establish an upper bound. The scenario adjustment is a disclosed assumption, not a substitute for a joint score.

Commitment	Historical annual reference	Treatment
Corporate rate from 21 to 25 percent	$54.28B	Included as an analogue. Four times the historical one-point score ($135.7B over ten years), divided by ten. Linear scaling to four points is a planning approximation, not a joint or current-law score. Corporate tax burdens can reach workers as well as shareholders. Baseline review Original source date: 2024-12-12. scored analog. pl-119-21: partially-superseded. The 21% rate is intact, but the 2025 act made 100% bonus depreciation and R&D expensing permanent, narrowing the base, so the per-point yield now runs somewhat below the December 2024 $135.7B/point score. Usable as a scored analog; exact 2026 yield awaits a rescore. pl-119-75: unaffected. This review identifies no direct change to this tax design from the IRS funding rescission. It is not a new official score; enforcement and joint-package interactions remain uncertain.
Tax foreign profits at the full corporate rate	$34B	Not counted. The policy commitment stands: profits booked overseas should not be taxed less than profits earned here. But the 2025 act already captured part of this option's yield, so the December 2024 $34B/yr is shown as a stale ceiling and is NOT counted toward coverage until CBO rescores it Baseline review Original source date: 2024-12-12. scored analog. pl-119-21: superseded. The 2025 act already moved partway here: it repealed the QBAI tangible-return exemption (GILTI became NCTI) and raised the effective rate from 10.5% to 12.6%, and eased the foreign-tax-credit haircut from 80% to 90%. The residual yield of finishing the move to a full-rate system is substantially smaller than the December 2024 $340B/decade and cannot be derived without an official rescore. Excluded from coverage math until rescored. pl-119-75: unaffected. This review identifies no direct change to this tax design from the IRS funding rescission. It is not a new official score; enforcement and joint-package interactions remain uncertain.
Close the pass-through investment-tax gap	$42B	Included as an analogue. High-income owners of pass-through businesses skip the 3.8 percent tax everyone else pays on investment income: CBO's December 2024 option scores this at about $420B per decade Baseline review Original source date: 2024-12-12. scored analog. pl-119-21: unaffected. The 2025 act did not touch the net investment income tax or its base; the gap this closes (active S-corp and limited-partner income escaping both NIIT and Medicare tax) still exists. The cited December 2024 option 60945 scores $420B/decade = $42B/yr — corrected from the earlier $24.9B, which was an older-vintage figure. pl-119-75: unaffected. This review identifies no direct change to this tax design from the IRS funding rescission. It is not a new official score; enforcement and joint-package interactions remain uncertain.
Tax capital gains at death	$53.61B	Included as an analogue. The historical tax-at-death alternative scored $536.1B over ten years. It is not restricted to large estates as a blanket rule. Farm deferrals, exemptions, and current estate-tax interactions require a design-specific score. Baseline review Original source date: 2024-12-12. scored analog. pl-119-21: partially-superseded. Stepped-up basis and capital-gains rates are unchanged, so the core score holds. But the 2025 act made a $15M-per-decedent estate-tax exemption permanent (vs the scheduled ~$7.1M reversion the December 2024 baseline assumed), shrinking the estate-tax offset the option interacts with. Net direction roughly neutral-to-slightly-up; treated as a scored analog. pl-119-75: unaffected. This review identifies no direct change to this tax design from the IRS funding rescission. It is not a new official score; enforcement and joint-package interactions remain uncertain.
Capital gains rate up two points	$10.33B	Not counted. NOT COUNTED: the cited option raises all 0/15/20 rates to 2/17/22, including qualified dividends. The adopted design instead adds two points only to gains/dividends otherwise taxed at 20%, limited to income above the adopted indexed, regionally adjusted high-income floors. Lower brackets remain unchanged. The protected top-only design has no joint cash score; this all-bracket reference is not its yield. Baseline review Original source date: 2024-12-12. scored analog. pl-119-21: unaffected. The 2025 act left long-term capital-gains and qualified-dividend rates (0/15/20) unchanged. Least affected of the committed options; only baseline realizations moved. pl-119-75: unaffected. This review identifies no direct change to this tax design from the IRS funding rescission. It is not a new official score; enforcement and joint-package interactions remain uncertain.
Small tax on financial transactions	$29.68B	Included as an analogue. The historical score is $296.8B over ten years. The one-basis-point tax covers most securities and derivatives, not just high-frequency trades. Ordinary investors may bear costs. The score includes an initial deficit increase; its average is not an annual cash-flow forecast. Baseline review Original source date: 2024-12-12. scored analog. pl-119-21: unaffected. No financial-transactions tax exists in current law and the 2025 act created none, so the December 2024 option 60966 ($296.8B/decade) is unaffected in design. Citation corrected from the December 2022 option 58708 to the December 2024 option 60966 that this figure comes from. pl-119-75: unaffected. This review identifies no direct change to this tax design from the IRS funding rescission. It is not a new official score; enforcement and joint-package interactions remain uncertain.
Rebuild IRS enforcement	$8B – $14B	Not counted. NOT COUNTED: the $8–14B range is a provisional collections allowance, not a net score. The funding appropriation, staff ramp, and collections net of costs are unspecified. CBO's rescission examples cannot simply be reversed into a restoration score. Baseline review Original source date: 2024-02-29. planning range. pl-119-75: superseded. Intervening rescissions changed the enforcement-funding baseline. This model has not reconciled account-level rescissions or specified a restoration appropriation. Historical marginal receipts are not a completed bottom-up or net-yield estimate; the line is excluded. pl-119-21: needs-rescore. Intervening rescissions changed the enforcement-funding baseline. This model has not reconciled account-level rescissions or specified a restoration appropriation. Historical marginal receipts are not a completed bottom-up or net-yield estimate; the line is excluded.

The capital-gains rate line stays out of these figures. The adopted two-point increase applies only to long-term gains and qualified dividends otherwise taxed at 20%, limited to income above the protected, indexed and regionally adjusted high-income threshold. Lower brackets stay unchanged. That design has no joint cash score; the old all-bracket analogue cannot substitute. IRS receipts also stay out until funding costs and net yield are specified.

What is not a pay-for

Federal Drug Price Negotiation. No incremental savings are booked. Source context.
Outcomes-Based Payment Reform. No separate new appropriation is modeled; existing staff time still has a cost. Source context.
Close the Buy-Borrow-Die Loophole. No incremental savings are booked. Source context.
Defense Modernization & Strategic Restraint. No incremental savings are booked. Source context.
Interest-Based Global Engagement. No separate new appropriation is modeled; existing staff time still has a cost. Source context.

Enacted IRA drug savings are already in current law. Growth, avoided disaster losses, and better health may matter greatly, but they are not cash we can spend in advance. A social benefit-cost ratio is not a Treasury return.

The bill excludes debt interest, unpriced federal fallback costs, and climate-insurance losses. The climate backstop has no priced expected loss or maximum federal exposure. Loan guarantees still need subsidy estimates. Federal totals also omit state, local and private costs and benefits.

This list includes both options not adopted and proposals committed but unscored, including the minimum tax. Exclusion from the arithmetic does not withdraw a policy commitment.

Surtax on income above $100K/$200K (per point). Historical reference: $56B–$112B per year. About $560B per decade per point. We did not commit to this one, on purpose: $100,000 is quickly becoming a middle-class income in the most expensive parts of the country, and a flat national threshold ignores that the same salary buys very different lives in different places. If ever used, the threshold has to be higher and set with local costs of living in mind
Social Security taxable-maximum options. Historical reference: $100B–$160B per year. Earmarked; not general platform funding. Taxing earnings above $250,000 raises $1.0-1.6 trillion per decade, but payroll tax flows to the Social Security trust fund, and its natural first claim is Social Security solvency. Counting it here and for solvency would be double-counting. The option stays listed, flagged, and out of our arithmetic
Carbon price. Historical reference: $92B–$92B per year. One of the biggest options in CBO's book: $25 per ton rising 5 percent a year raises about $919B per decade in the December 2024 scoring. We list it for completeness and do not count it. A platform that promises to cut your energy bill does not quietly balance its books by raising it
Close the buy-borrow-die loophole for good. Historical reference: $50B–$50B per year. Taxing gains at death (committed above) ends the endgame. Ending the lifetime leg takes a minimum tax on fortunes above $100 million that counts unrealized gains, which Treasury scores at roughly $500B per decade. The dollars move into our arithmetic the day an official score exists. This is now a full proposal: Equal Rights, Proposal 6

No single shelf item is asserted to close the gap. Changing thresholds, exemptions, or earmarks requires a new policy decision and score.

Open policy and evidence questions

Policy commitments remain in place. These decisions and evidence gaps are not resolved by the planning totals. No benefit threshold, new tax, or benefit cut is adopted by this register.

These are requirements for a scoreable, deliverable design—not changes adopted by this review. Policy choices belong to the platform; estimates and legal review need the relevant experts. Public results need a named correction owner and a review date.

Education and care

Decision and evidence responsibility: Platform policy design; federal and state education and care agencies for delivery estimates.

Define teacher wage parity, regional and subject adjustments, state participation, and the cost of a federal fallback. Build a state-by-state match estimate before calling the range bottom-up.
Choose childcare and pre-K quality, staffing, facility and take-up standards. Price permanent eligibility rather than reusing a temporary bill's average. Specify the cost of serving residents in states that decline the match.
Specify tuition completion support, apprenticeship credits, loan relief, and the scope beyond enacted Workforce Pell. Define a school-growth comparison method; NAEP does not report individual-school results.

Measure delivery: Track staffed places, attendance, retention, completion, and access by income and disability. Separate enrollment from service quality; publish uncertainty in comparisons.

Infrastructure

Decision and evidence responsibility: Platform appropriations design; transportation and energy agencies for delivery estimates.

Name the funding displaced by bonuses from existing grant pools, or price new appropriations. A fixed pot cannot pay new bonuses while protecting every existing allocation without another source.
Specify asset priorities and exceptions to maintenance-first rules. Fund permitting and inspection staff, appeal paths, and enforceable deadlines.
Price grid loan guarantees using loan volume, defaults, recoveries and fees. Define broadband speed, reliability, price commitments, and clawbacks.

Measure delivery: Track completed repairs, asset condition, outage duration and household access, not only grants awarded or permits issued.

Housing

Decision and evidence responsibility: Platform benefit and appropriations design; HUD and local housing agencies for delivery estimates.

The first phase guarantees funding for every otherwise eligible household in HUD's extremely low-income band, independent of regional homebuilding progress. Choose tenant rent-and-utilities payments, other eligibility rules, the statutory funding mechanism and money source, rollout dates, and enforceable delivery. Specify help when a voucher cannot be used and the path for households outside the first phase while their region misses supply targets. The old amounts and fixed ramp have not been recalculated for this guarantee.
Define geographic units, completed net housing additions, certification, rural exceptions, recession protections and treatment of current recipients. Fixed ramps in the model do not implement these triggers.
Specify landlord participation, unsuccessful searches and displacement safeguards. Separate rental subsidies from Housing First services to avoid double counting; model take-up rather than assuming every voucher successfully leases a home.

Measure delivery: Track completed homes, lease-up, housing stability, homelessness inflows and exits, and rent burden by income. Permit/rent correlations are descriptive, not causal effect estimates.

Energy, climate and water

Decision and evidence responsibility: Platform statutory design; energy, water and emergency-management agencies plus actuarial reviewers.

Score restoration of expired 25C/25D credits separately from point-of-sale timing, refundability and expanded grants. Specify renters' access and measures against contractor price capture.
Define clean-energy and reliability targets using hourly supply, firm capacity, transmission limits, storage duration and winter peaks. Queue capacity is neither completed generation nor assured investment.
Define the water proposal's legal route through state rights, interstate compacts and tribal rights, including shortage declarations and appeals. The national allocation rule remains an unresolved design choice.
Price expected climate claims, administration, premiums, reserves and correlated tail losses. Choose maximum federal exposure, retention, retreat and buyout rules; fee financing alone does not establish zero net cost.

Measure delivery: Track household bills with matched-year household data, completed connections, reliability, avoided losses and reliable water access. Distinguish social benefits from federal cash savings.

Health and long-term care

Decision and evidence responsibility: Platform eligibility and benefit design; CMS and independent health modelers for costing.

Healthcare policy details and open decisions →

Read /pulse/costs/ for the approved working-cost publication scope: conditional comparisons and explicit unknowns, not full costing or full funding. Complete the net clinical/delivery and setup estimates without repeating closed housing, support or patient-payment calculations. Keep separately funded support once and mixed-care headroom separate with matched drawdown; May 2025 wage evidence does not resolve the 2024 comparison.
Complete the joined CY2029–2038 estimate and separate mature annual comparison: match participation and retained coverage to care, actual worker-specific credits, household consent, collections and refunds. Include temporary outlays, ongoing interest and joint taxes after housing and all other platform uses. Hypothetical contributions are not receipts; static tax liabilities are not cash; transfers are not national savings. Preserve the no-incoming-premium test with refunds owed.
Implement, rather than reopen, annual worker/employer caps and actual net insured or self-funded costs. Quarterly provisional payments and annual reconciliation in both directions are adopted. Correct original coverage years, book cash when paid or refunded, and refund public overpayments only. No unused credit transfers between workers, employers or coverage years. Qualifying dependent-only coverage can retain credit after a worker switches. Resolve actual funding attribution, qualification records and enforcement; estimate the national effects.
Targeted worker and small-employer transition support is adopted. Estimate actual eligible workloads and net assistance once, after qualifying coverage credits and public overpayment refunds. Contribution and healthcare surtax rates remain unselected. The separate two-point investment-tax definition is adopted but unscored: protected top-only gains and qualified dividends, not an all-bracket increase.
Preserve complete treatment, zero covered patient charges, continuity, required provider participation and access. Implement the adopted public-payer delivery and protected contract handover. Price additional local capacity, public pharmacy/payment adaptation, system conversion and parallel operations net of matching funded work; no staffing cuts, provider-return guarantee or assumed national savings.
Preserve support-family income and consent rules, whole-month calculation, protected earlier honest assessments, downward-only household settlement and tax-time collection. Liquid taxable severance uses the receipt-month hardship rule and counts once in annual income. Remaining public partial-month, changing-family, mixed-eligibility, shared-support, full-price attribution and other one-time-resource cases, verification, liquidity, notices and rounding still need implementation.
Employer affordability remains distinct from the employer contribution account. Complete detailed support checks, multiple-worker/home arrangements outside tested formulas, hardship/deductible protections, partial-year and job-pay coordination, indexing, refund responsibility and appeals. The annual contribution-settlement approval does not silently settle every employer-affordability rule.
Implement the protected Medicare/Medicaid/CHIP core transition with federal responsibility for transferred core costs. Retained services keep funding until suitable funded replacements exist. Match actual baseline outlays and receipts, including state buy-ins and federal-employer transfers, once. Final rates, joint tax behavior and legal/administrative implementation still need a supported decision package.

Measure delivery: Track insured and effectively served patients, appointment waits, out-of-pocket costs, risk-adjusted outcomes and caregiver burden. Audit selection and coding incentives.

Rights and public capacity

Decision and evidence responsibility: Platform enforcement and tax design; justice and immigration agencies for capacity estimates.

Reconcile legal-aid, defender and enforcement commitments with the spending allowance. Define remedies for missed deadlines and minimum service standards.
Price immigration judges, interpreters, support staff, appeals and digital systems together. Measure timely correct decisions, not case closures alone. Fees still impose costs on applicants.
Define gain-at-death exemptions and deferrals and the borrowing fallback's basis, repayment, loss and refinancing rules. Obtain legal review and a design-specific score before booking additional revenue.

Measure delivery: Track access to counsel, valid timely decisions, appeal reversals, enforcement remedies and distributional effects. Publish results by affected group with privacy safeguards.

Technology rules

Decision and evidence responsibility: Platform statutory design; designated regulators and independent audit bodies.

Define high-stakes decisions, government coverage, startup exceptions, audit independence, evidence access, penalties and an effective appeal. A small company can still make a high-risk decision.
Distinguish existing credit explanation rights from proposed cross-sector audits and human review. Define privacy-law coordination rather than promising a federal floor eliminates all state variation.
Resolve child-design prohibitions versus switchable defaults and define privacy-preserving age applicability. Set frontier-model thresholds, update rules, open-weight treatment and incident-reporting responsibilities.

Measure delivery: Track corrected decisions, appeal outcomes, audit failures, incidents and actual remedies. An audit count alone does not establish safer systems.

Foreign policy

Decision and evidence responsibility: Platform strategy and appropriations design; State, Defense and trade agencies for estimates.

Define force posture, missions, treaty commitments, readiness safeguards and transition costs before naming defense savings. No such savings are booked.
Reconcile diplomatic and development restoration against enacted funding, not proposed cuts; identify overlap. Distinguish existing arms-transfer restrictions from proposed independent verification and tighter waivers.
Specify tariff changes and their customs-revenue effects. Evaluate industrial policy using realized output and resilience rather than announced investment. Pandemic welfare-loss estimates are not recoverable federal budget dollars.

Measure delivery: Track staffed capacity, response time, verified compliance, mission readiness and realized productive capacity. Assign a review date and correction owner to each program.

Method and source status

Historical portfolio illustrations, not the current healthcare or housing score. Healthcare working comparisons and explicit unknowns are published separately at /pulse/costs/ and /pulse/costs.json; do not combine them with these legacy totals. Federal planning costs only. Illustrative ten-year ramps and full-take-up annual costs are separate views. These are not official scores of the package or forecasts for a named budget window. Cost anchors use different source years; the current-law review is incomplete. Fixed ramps do not simulate supply or revenue triggers. Historical phase-in ranges are reference notes, not enforced caps. Revenue uses historical decade averages with assumed interaction adjustments; actual yearly receipts can differ sharply. Interest, unpriced federal fallback, and contingent losses are excluded. Implementation is proposed no earlier than January 2029; relative years have not been calendar-rebased. The legacy health range does not estimate the current core benefits, zero patient charges for covered care, coverage, premium, billing, employer-contribution or employer-affordability design. Full coverage for eligible uninsured nonresponders remains uncosted; unaccepted premiums cannot be assumed as revenue. Credited private insurance spending is not public revenue, and public employer payments enter a common pool without personal premium discounts. A new estimate needs benefits, enrollment, claims, contribution rates, transition assistance, program offsets and administration. The earliest conditional health rollout is late 2029; the model has not been calendar-rebased. The housing amounts and fixed ramp predate the first-phase funding guarantee for otherwise eligible extremely low-income households and have not been recalculated for it or for failed-search assistance.

For the healthcare rules behind these costing requirements, read the full coverage policy.

Current-law reference: CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036. This reference does not mean all estimates have been rescored against it. Cost-side baseline checks and parameter models remain incomplete. Historical spending envelopes do not constrain the rollout calculation.

exact official score: An official score (CBO/JCT/agency) of substantially the same legislative design.
scored analog: A published estimate for a related design, not an official score of this proposal. The source identifies the institution and original scope.
bottom up: A reproducible model multiplies eligible population, unit cost, take-up, and federal share from explicit parameters.
budget cap: A deliberate appropriation or program envelope, not an estimate of unconstrained demand.
unpriced contingent: No defensible estimate exists, or exposure depends on uncertain future events.
planning range: A provisional range anchored to related work; eligible population, unit cost, take-up, or net financing parameters are not yet fully specified.

Calculations retain precision until display rounding. Small differences in displayed sums can result from rounding. Download the historical portfolio model (JSON). For the separate healthcare comparisons, use the working-cost evidence download.

This review replaces the old 115% floor-funding claim, removes already-enacted drug savings as new funding, and separates phase-in costs from full take-up. Historical audits and workbooks are not the current fiscal source.